On December 8th, the official bracket and teams were announced for the College Football Playoff. The twelve teams will compete in a single elimination bracket to claim the National Championship. The four highest conference champions claim a bye and get to skip to the next round of the Playoff without playing a game. The other eight teams must play in the first round, and the winners go on to play the teams who received byes in the first round. From there, winners of the quarter final move on to the next round until there is one champion.
For the four top spots Oregon claimed the Big Ten Championship, Georgia claimed the SEC Championship, Boise State claimed the Mountain West Championship and Arizona State won the Big XII Championship. The eight additional teams that qualified are Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU and ACC Champion Clemson.
The number one team, Oregon, is the only remaining team in the country that is still undefeated. Oregon holds three major wins on their schedule: Penn State, Ohio State and Boise State. Oregon looked shaky at the beginning of the season after a close game against FCS level Idaho, but since then the offense has exploded. Oregon’s strength of their schedule is ranked 18th out of the 134 FBS teams.
The number two seed is occupied by Georgia. Georgia has two losses on the season with a bad loss in Ole Miss and a narrow loss at Alabama. Georgia holds two wins over playoff bound Texas, and also holds wins over Tennessee and Clemson. Georgia’s offense has looked less than stellar at times, with an eight point overtime win over Georgia Tech and a tight ten point win over lowly two win Mississippi State. Georgia had the hardest schedule of any team in college football this season. Georgia likely will not have quarterback Carson Beck for the remainder of the season as a result of an arm injury during the most recent game against Texas.
The number three seed is held by Boise State. Boise State’s lone loss on the season is a tight defeat at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. Being in the Mountain West leads Boise State to have a schedule on the weaker side, with their two ranked wins both being against UNLV. Boise State’s weaker schedule with the Mountain West Conference hurt its strength of schedule, placing it 70th of the 134 FBS schools. Boise State’s offense relies mainly on the back of running back Ashton Jeanty, who has tallied a near record setting 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns. For his part he is considered one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy.
Claiming the fourth seed is Arizona State. Arizona State has two early season losses, a close loss at Texas Tech and a loss at Cincinnati. Arizona State has collected six straight wins, including wins over ranked opponents BYU, Kansas State and a trouncing of Iowa State in the Big XII Championship Game. Arizona State’s offense has gone through running back Cam Skattebo, who has 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns. Arizona State’s strength of schedule is ranked 33rd in FBS.
The fifth seed and first seed who did not win their conference is Texas. In their first season as a part of the SEC, it was a successful season going 11-2. Texas has gone 11-0 against teams that are not Georgia and has gone 0-2 against Georgia. Texas has no wins over ranked teams and their best win is a win against archrival Texas A&M. Despite holding no ranked wins, they hold the nation’s third hardest strength of schedule and a second place finish in arguably the toughest conference for football in 2024. For the first round Texas hosts opponent Clemson. Clemson made the playoff due to their ACC Conference Championship. Clemson is the only team in the playoff with three losses, losing to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. Their only ranked win is their triumph over SMU in the ACC Championship Game which took a game winning 56 yard field goal. Clemson has the 23rd strongest schedule in the FBS, however they played in a weak ACC conference. ESPN gives Texas an 80% chance of beating Clemson. Clemson and Texas play at 4:00 on December 21st. The winner of Texas-Clemson goes on to play Arizona State in the Peach Bowl in the quarterfinal.
In the second matchup of the first round is Ohio State and Tennessee. Ohio State went 10-2 on the season with its losses coming against Oregon and 7 win Michigan. Both losses were embarrassing in their own right, each for different reasons. Ohio State was favored by three against Oregon and lost due to a poorly timed slide by quarterback Will Howard. Ohio State’s loss against Michigan came after Ohio State was favored by 20 and lost to a Michigan team that was seen as one of the weakest Michigan teams in recent memory. Ohio State does have wins over two playoff teams, Indiana and Penn State. Ohio State is ranked ninth in terms of strength of schedule. Ohio State will face Tennessee in Columbus. Like Ohio State, Tennessee is also 10-2. Tennessee has losses against Georgia and a weak six win Arkansas team. Tennessee’s biggest win on the season is a home win against Alabama. In terms of strength of schedule, Tennessee has the eleventh strongest schedule in FBS. ESPN gives Ohio State a 65% chance of beating Tennessee. Tennessee and Ohio State play at 8:00 PM on December 21st. The winner of Tennessee-Ohio State goes on to play Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
The third matchup of the first round is SMU and Penn State. Penn State went 11-2 this season with losses to Ohio State and Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State’s biggest win and only ranked win of the season is against 20th ranked Illinois. Penn State barely survived scares against 7 win Minnesota and a 5 win Wisconsin team. Penn State is ranked 16th in terms of strength of schedule. Penn State is hosting SMU for their playoff game. SMU failed to win the ACC Championship game which would have given them a spot in the first four who get to skip the first round. Instead, SMU has to take the 11th spot in the playoff field. SMU is 11-2 on the season with an early season loss to BYU and a loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. SMU has no ranked wins, however they did defeat nine win Duke in overtime and eight win Louisville. SMU is ranked 41st in terms of strength of schedule, mainly due to the ACC having a weak season. ESPN gives Penn State a 62% chance of defeating SMU. Penn State and SMU play at noon on December 21st. The winner of Penn State-SMU will go on to play Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
The final matchup of the first round is Notre Dame and Indiana. Despite both Indiana and Notre Dame being in the same state, they do not have a rivalry and haven’t played since 1991. Notre Dame went 11-1 this season with its only loss coming against 7-win Northern Illinois. Notre Dame’s only ranked win is against Army. Notre Dame has other wins against unranked teams such as eight-win Texas A&M and eight win Louisville. Notre Dame is ranked 21st in terms of strength of schedule. Notre Dame’s opponent for their game is Indiana. Indiana, like Notre Dame, went 11-1 on the season. Indiana has no ranked wins against ranked opponents, and their best win is a win against seven-win Michigan. Indiana’s lone loss on the season is a drubbing at the hands of Ohio State. Indiana’s strength of schedule is weak, being ranked at 41st. Regardless of the result in the playoff, Indiana’s season has been a remarkable success. Indiana is the losingest football program in all of FBS and has not won a bowl game since the 1991 Copper Bowl. Despite their success this season, Notre Dame is given a 70% chance to win against Indiana. Their game is December 20th at 8:00 PM. The winner of Notre Dame-Indiana plays Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Oregon is considered the favorite for the National Championship, with Georgia, Texas and Ohio State behind them. This will ultimately be decided within the next few weeks.
